Contributions to ionospheric determination with global positioning system: solar flare detection and prediction of global maps of total electron content

Abstract

Two research studies have been addressed in this thesis. Both of them are of actual scientific interest and are based on processing GNSS data. The first part of this thesis is devoted to GNSS detection and monitoring of solar flares. The second one is devoted to GNSS prediction of ionospheric Total Electron Content. Regarding the first study, a new solar flare detector called SISTED has been designed and implemented. Its goal is to provide a simple and efficient way of detecting the most number of powerful X-class solar flares in real time operation. In addition, it can send early warning messages to prevent the harmful consequences of the increase of ejected particles from the Sun that may reach the Earth after a solar flare, especially in case of a Coronal Mass Ejection. The main benefit of SISTED regarding other detection techniques is that it does not require data from external providers out of the GNSS community. In addition, it can run in real-time operation and could provide value added data to GNSS users. The results show that SISTED was able to detect up to the 95% of the X-class flares reported by GOES for more than a half solar cycle. Regarding the second study, a new approach to predict Global Ionospheric vertical TEC Maps has been designed and implemented in the context of the IGS Ionosphere Working Group. The motivation to develop a UPC Predicted product was the interest of ESA's SMOS mission. A recent application using UPC Predicted products is the generation of real-time global VTEC maps as background model. In addition, the predicted VTEC maps are used to generate the combined IGS Predicted products. The results obtained in this thesis show that the model performs well when the results are compared with those obtained by the other IGS analysis centers. In addition, applying the prediction model leads to better results than the use of time-invariant ionosphere for two days ahead. In relation with this research, 4 publications in international journals indexed in JCR/ISI have been generated (and another one is under review process), and 7 presentations have been authored in international meetings, among the new UPC predicted product contributing to IGS, and the contribution to two competitive projects funded by the European Space Agency (AGIM and MONITOR).